I'm heading to Vegas:
AL East
NY Yankees - all that money has to payoff this year, right?
Boston Red Sox* - with a healthy Beckett, they take the Yanks down to the wire.
Tampa Bay Rays - so much to love about them, but I think they come back to earth a little.
Baltimore Orioles - just not enough pitching
Toronto Blue Jays - For his own sake, I hope Roy Halladay is traded someday.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians - they can mash, when they're healthy, but is Travis Hafner himself again?
Minnesota Twins - I'm convinced that they'll be competitive forever.
Detroit Tigers - last year was an aberration, but they still have big holes in the bullpen.
Chicago White Sox - I bet before the end of the year Ozzie's going to wish he had Vasquez back.
Kansas City Royals - not yet
AL West
LA Angels of Anaheim - Mike Scioscia will make it work
Oakland Athletics - they'll push the Angels. At least until they trade Holliday.
Texas Rangers - same old story, they'll score 900 runs and give up 950.
Seattle Mariners - maybe this year they'll only lose 95.
MVP: Grady Sizemore - THE reason I have Cleveland winning their division
CY: Roy Halladay - how many games would he win if he pitched for the Yankees?
ROY: Matt Wieters - I know he just got sent down, but he'll be back, sooner rather than later.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies - Sue me, I'm a homer.
NY Mets* - it'll come down to the last weekend again. I've got a bad feeling about K-Rod.
Atlanta Braves - Chipper has to stay healthy, but either way, they're much better than last year.
Florida Marlins - you never know what you're gonna get, but they'll cause trouble, as usual.
Washington Nationals - will anyone ever go to watch this franchise play?
NL Central
Chicago Cubs - Kevin Gregg is the closer?
St Louis Cardinals - any team with Pujols is bound to be at least competitive
Cincinnati Reds - could be the sleeper in the NL. Even without Dunn, they'll rake.
Milwaukee Brewers - No C.C., no playoffs.
Pittsburgh Pirates - so sad that they can't put a quality product in that beautiful park.
Houston Astros - Ed Wade.
NL West
LA Dodgers - Manny being Manny for the whole season.
Arizona Diamondbacks - so young, so many strikeouts; on both sides
San Francisco Giants - not the team you want to run into if you're not hitting well
Colorado Rockies - they need some of those young pitchers to put it together for a full season.
San Diego Padres - so long, Jake.
MVP: Albert Pujols - not very creative, but it's gotta be at least even money
CY: Tim Lincecum - I'm sick of the commercials, but he can bring it
ROY: Jason Motte - 35 saves (and not just because he's on my squad)
I'm encouraged you think the Reds are going to rake without Dunn. I'm not so convinced, although I do like Votto and Bruce quite a bit. Those two have great potential, but it doesn't help them to have a string of out machines up and down the rest of the lineup.
ReplyDeleteOverall, I agree with your 3rd place prediction because the Cincy pitching is the real strength of the team, along with their slightly-above league average (and therefore greatly improved) defense. Amazing how much getting rid of two statues in the OF (Dunn and Griffey) can keep down RA projections. Harang, Arroyo, Volquez and Cueto are as good a top four as any team has--and Micah Owings and Homer Bailey should provide good depth all year.
Who needs Dunn when you have Owings? He'll hit at least 10 HR in that park. But seriously, Phillips, Votto, Bruce for a whole year, in that park, they'll hit. They should have enough starting pitching to compete but Harang scares me and if Volquez resembles his second half of 08 self, there could be trouble.
ReplyDeletePhillips makes more outs than almost any other player in baseball. He's a great fielder, so I still want him on the team, but he should NOT be hitting cleanup (thanks, Dusty!) Owings can rake better than any SP in MLB, but he only plays once every five days, so he won't replace Dunn.
ReplyDeleteI think Harang will be back to form. You are right that Volquez had a bad second half--but most people already thought his first half (2.20 ERA) was unsustainable. If he's somewhere between the two (most likely) then the staff will be just fine. Actually, I'm most worried about Arroyo right now. He's got bad carpal tunnel syndrome, and may miss some starts. He's never going to be an ace, but 200 IP of league average baseball is a difficult thing to replace.
BTW, what's the news on Hamels these days? He's gotta be there if your homer pick in the NL East is going to work out.
ReplyDeleteOwings? I kid, I kid. I hear you on Phillips. He's definitely a more valuable fantasy player than 'real' player, in my opinion. But, I also think that between Votto and Bruce, they'll make up for Dunn. Hernandez, Encarnacion, and Gonzalez also have a little pop.
ReplyDeleteAs for the pitching, I gave up on Arroyo after that 11 run first inning against Toronto last year. I hope you're right about Harang and Volquez has been unhittable this spring, but I have a feeling that they are both going to slow down in the second half again. I'm not as convinced yet about Cueto and Bailey as you are. Bottomline, I call them my sleeper for a reason. If they put it all together, they could be really good, but that's a big if involving many smaller ifs.
Hamels is pitching on Friday at Colorado. I'm concerned (along with about a couple of million other people in the Philadelphia metro area), but so are the Phillies and I don't think they would take the chance of pitching him in April in Colorado if he isn't feeling okay.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you about the Reds. I see 81-81 as a distinct possibility, but not much more.
ReplyDeleteThe Phillies actually surprised me last year. I was never quite convinced they would ever put it all together and then... they did! This may be one of the last few years in their window though. Utley and Rollins are awesome, but they aren't getting any younger, and Howard has been regressing big time (and he's also a lot older than one would think after sitting in the minors so long).
After Hamels, the rotation is suspect, although I think Myers could still have a breakout year sometime (as long as he doesn't get busted for domestic abuse first). I've also been waiting for Carlos Carrasco to arrive for awhile. What's keeping that kid down?
Don't get me wrong: the Phillies are a contender. I just wonder for how long.
ReplyDeleteI think the biggest reason that the Phillies were a surprise last year was because nobody thought the bullpen would be anywhere near that good. It probably won't be again this year. Hamels and Moyers had good years, but none of the other starters were anything special. Despite getting shelled as we speak (and giving you a nice start to the season), I also think Myers could put it together this year. They don't 'need' Carrasco right now, so they're not going to waste service time with him sitting in the bullpen.
ReplyDeleteWith the expection of Victorino and Werth, there weren't any career years, offensively. Utley and Rollins, assuming they're healthy, still have several years at near top level. Howard is what he is. I'm not sure I see 'big time' regression with him, at this point, and dropping the weight has him looking good, even in the field. On top of that they do all of the little things well: they play good defense, have reliable pinch hitters (but could use a right handed bat), and they run the bases. This bunch probably has 3-4 years without making any serious changes. If you look at the expiration of most of their contracts, they line up pretty closely to that.
Well, good to be a Phillies fan then. It's true Howard has lost some weight, but his plate discipline has fallen off a cliff over the last two years. The Phillies would perhaps do well to let him play out the current contract and then walk.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I have Myers in my other fantasy league--so his current shellacking is a bitter sweet symphony indeed.
Can I just mention that if your prediction is right about the Tribe, the Five-Tool Fools will be AWESOME! Sizemore, Peralta, V-Mart, Hafner and DeRosa all on the same fantasy team (not to mention LaPorta in my minors slot). Talk about going all in on one lineup!
ReplyDeleteI also picked them to win it last year.
ReplyDeleteWell, they did have a lot of injuries last year. You can't know that's going to happen in advance. If Hafner and V-Mart manage to stay healthy, that lineup should be formidable. That's all I care about, really.
ReplyDelete