Predictions 2011: NL Edition

Now that we've got the Junior circuit out of the way, let's take a look at the NL.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

 I'm sure that you're all shocked with this pick.  I know that the Phillies are old and their hurt.  Well, they pretty much were last year too with every regular except Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez missing significant time to the DL.  Losing Werth is nothing to sneeze at and missing Chase Utley for what could be the first half of the year, isn't either.  Luckily for them, they managed to pick up some starting pitching help in the form of Cliff Lee.  As for the Braves, they're should hit and they've got pitching as well (wouldn't mind having a couple of those young flamethrowers in the bullpen), but they've got a couple of questions to answer themselves.  Is Nate McClouth really the opening day starter in CF?  Can they count on Chipper and Heyward for the whole season?  My bet is they will push the Phils harder than last year, but come up just short.

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers

 
 

This may have been the toughest division for me to make a pick.  If the Reds weren't having any nagging early season pitching issues, I would probably have picked them to repeat.  If the Cardinals hadn't lost one of the best pitchers in baseball this spring to injury (not to mention the Albert Pujols contract circus), I might have gone with them.  However, those things really are happening so I'm going to go with the Brew Crew.  Even without the help given to them by their division rivals, the Brewers were certain to improve this year with AL imports Zack Grienke and Shawn Marcum added to bolster the rotation.  They can't catch the ball, but I'm guessing the hitting and pitching will be just enough to squeak by the Reds.  Whoever finished second should have a good shot at the Wild Card.


NL West: Colorado Rockies

 Just in case you hadn't heard, Troy Tulowitzki is really, really good.  So is Carlos Gonzalez.  The rest of the lineup may not inspire as much confidence, but throw in a little Dexter Fowler, mix in a pinch of Seth Smith, and finish with a dash of Ian Stewart and you've got a decent offense.  Surprisingly good pitching and above average glove work should propel the Rox back into October just ahead of the Giants.  I know, how can I pick against a World Champion bringing everybody but WS MVP Edgar Renteria back?  (It has nothing to do with the bitter taste in my mouth over the NLCS, I swear).  The lineup, even with the addition of super prospect Brandon Belt and Miguel Tejada, just doesn't scare me, or NL West opponents.  Several players like Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell are ready to take a step back from last year's numbers.  Also worrisome is the number of innings thrown by the Giants young starting staff.  Having seen the '09 version of Cole Hamels, I worry about some of their arms having some trouble this year.  Opening the season with Brian Wilson on the DL isn't going to help.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves

I know a lot of the talk about the Braves has been the addition of Uggla or the potential of Freeman, but the way I see it, a healthy Jason Heyward means a return to the playoffs for the Braves.  They've got enough depth in their pen to make up for losing Wagner and their starting pitching will keep them in most games.  But if Heyward goes down, even if it is just a collection of nagging injuries like last year, the whole dynamic of this offense changes.  They can't depend on Chipper like they used to and guys like Uggla or Prado aren't really equipped to strap an offense to their back.  Heyward has all the tools, and as long as he's on the field to use them, the Braves will hold off the 2nd place team from the Central for the Wild Card spot again in '11.






Check back tomorrow for my individual award and playoff predictions.  Until then, keep it Scrappy.